Before I came out to Düsseldorf, I was jokingly saying to anyone who asked that I had narrowed down the possible winners to nine countries. It was just a figure plucked out of the air, nothing scientific. I hadn't actually counted. On a positive note, none of the songs I thought could win were amongst the eighteen who have been sent home from the two semi-finals. The rubbish has been cleared out very well this year.

So, yesterday, I did actually count the contenders amongst the 25 finalists, and it would seem I have now narrowed down the possible winners... to eleven! Oh dear.

Really, this year is very difficult to predict those countries at the top, unless the bookies have been right all along and it really is France. I won't complain if we're in Paris next year. In fact, I would love it, but we'll probably never hear the song again after tonight's reprise and it won't be a pan-European hit single.

And there's the rub. According to several people (but I haven't seen it in print - shoddy journalism, I know), the EBU's instructions to the juries say that they should be thinking about the potential to produce a hit song from the contest. I am confident that Ireland's Jedward are going to do well in televotes all over the place, but if this is what the juries have to do, I think it will swing enough jury votes in their favour as well. They also have to look out for presentation and choreography; more points in Jedward's favour. So, I think Ireland are going to win. And who would have thought that, even two months ago? Louis Walsh is here to see it, bless him, as he was on Thursday. He's been the manager of Irish Eurovision winners before, with Linda Martin and Johnny Logan, so if he does it again as Jedward's manager, there really must be something magical about the man.

So, my rough guess for the top of the leaderboard is something like this, but really, you may as well throw the country names up in the air and see how they land. I have no idea.

1. Ireland
2. Germany
3. France
4. Azerbaijan
5. Ukraine
6. Finland
7. Austria
8. Russia
9. Iceland
10. Bosnia-Herzegovina
11. Denmark
12. UK

Unfortunately, the presentation of Blue's song, with their unsuitable suits and the green lighting, makes me think we might not be top ten, but we won't be bottom either. It's 14 years since a UK win, it's the 14th today and Blue sing in position 14. Make of that what you will.

There's one major new innovation this year, which should add some drama to the voting. The order in which countries give their votes has only been determined TODAY by the EBU. It has been published, with Moldova, Belgium and Latvia ending the voting. (The UK votes 13th. Shame it's not 14th, eh?) They have manipulated the vote announcements in order to maximise tension, which is a great idea. It's based on an algorithm worked out by an academic. (No time now for proper research on this!) It takes into account the jury votes, which the EBU already knows, as they voted on last night's rehearsal, mixed in with predictions of the televote, based on each country's televoting history. The order would seem to imply that Russia or the UK will be up there near the end, which is intriguing and obviously runs contrary to my predictions. We shall see.

I'll be watching on the screens in the media sports hall, along with lots of friends. You may think it's strange to come all this way and not go into the arena, but it's too expensive. We have touted around for tickets, and there are some going, but they're up in the gods and it's just not worth it. I saw the show in the arena yesterday in the first rehearsal, so that's good enough for me. I won't see the interval act live though, and we were cleared out of the hall yesterday so that we couldn't see some other surprise that's planned, so I don't know what it is and I look forward to it.

What I was planning to do, as I did very enjoyably in Kyiv and Beograd, was to watch the final outside, or in a bar in the city centre. There are many options available in the Altstadt and City Zentrum, but it's too far away. In 2005, we could easily run back from Independence Square in Kyiv, and I made it to Helena Paparizou's winner's conference before she did, but here, with the distance involved to the city centre and the parking jobsworths here at the arena, who would make me park a zillion miles away on my return, it's physically impossible, which is a real shame. In addition, the closing party seems so limited in size that no one has even mentioned us getting tickets, never mind being given one. So, as we were excluded from the opening party as well, my tenth Eurovision will be the first where I've missed the opening and closing parties. I'll be celebrating with a soft drink in the car as I drive back to the campsite at 2am. Don't feel sorry for me; it really is great to be here and I realise how privileged we are. It's been a lot of fun, but very tiring and very stressful at times.

Enjoy the show, and I wish Jedward and Blue the very best of luck.

Labels: Eurovision 2011, predictions

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A month ago, we had a preview party in Manchester. These were my predictions then, and nine of them are the same now. So, take out Portugal (sadly) and add in Norway (against my better judgment and those are my ten predictions.

Labels: Eurovision 2011, predictions

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With two and a half hours until Eurovision part two starts, I was just about to write that I'll be watching the semi-final in the media tent. I was in the hall for the third and final dress rehearsal this afternoon, where I took some photos and was quite happy to watch this one on the screens next door. However, all that has changed in the last few minutes as I've just been given a ticket by the nicest Danish man in the world, so Chigeralla will go to the ball after all.

Just time for some quick predictions then, from this more difficult to predict show.

Certain qualifiers:

Azerbaijan - even though it's over-rated and dull. There's no way this deserves to be favourite.

Armenia - my favourite of the uptempo songs in this one, but not presented as well as it could be. The presence of a stupid papier mache apricot stone on stage shouldn't stop it qualifying though.

And, er... that's it. Everything else is up for grabs, but I'll suggest this as the ten, roughly in this order of certainty:

Azerbaijan
Armenia
Turkey
Croatia
Georgia
Israel
Lithuania
Netherlands
Ireland
Cyprus

Which leaves these out in the cold:

Romania
Denmark
Sweden
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Slovenia
Switzerland

You can see from this that it might be touch and go for the Brits representing Cyprus and for Ireland's Niamh Kavanagh. Both of these deserve to go through and are lovely people, so please vote for Cyprus and Ireland.

Easier to call, I think, will be the UK televote. These won't necessarily be the points that the UK gives, as the televote will be modified by the UK jury's 50%, but I would expect our televote top four to look something like this:

1st Ireland
2nd Cyprus
3rd Lithuania
4th Turkey

Labels: Eurovision 2010, predictions, semi-finals

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Finnish lovelies Kuunkuiskaajat in happier times (ie. last week)

I correctly predicted 8 of last night's qualifiers from semi-final one. It was looking shaky though when Moldova popped out second from the virtual envelopes and then Portugal was fifth. I was two down out of five by that point, but I had all five of the final batch. I did say Moldova would be close, and that Poland was my wildcard (more in hope than expectation), so I partially covered my back on those, but I was very wrong about Portugal. I don't like the song; it bores me rigid, but I'm clearly out of touch with this one. I would guess it's the 50% jury votes which have saved Portugal though. I'd be surprised if televoting alone would have seen it through. We'll see when the full jury and televote results are published (which they eventually will be).

I feel very sorry for Finland, whose song thoroughly deserved to go through. Reaction in the hall led me to believe it would, as it was in the top three or four in terms of crowd response. But we are very near Finland here, so it was a skewed reaction to a Nordic neighbour.

When we were down to two envelopes and I saw on my scrawled notes that Albania hadn't yet been seen, I realised we were going to lose Iceland or Finland, or both. Then Albania came out of envelope number nine and I couldn't decide who I most wanted to come out of number ten, and in the end it was Iceland. I've been told that Iceland was in the final envelope last year as well. Given that it's no longer random paper envelopes, but controlled by the production team, I wonder why they did it again?

Labels: Eurovision 2010, predictions, semi-finals

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Chig with Peter Nalitch of Russia, qualifying tonight.



Chig with a Moldovan twinklet, a Belarusian butterfly and another Moldovan dancer, all in tonight's semi-final.


The regular reader will recall that I usually get seven, sometimes eight, of the Eurovision qualifiers right. If I were dedicated enough, I would look back over this blog and tell you, but I'm very comfy on the white sofas in the Eurovision tent and I can't be arsed, to be honest. Focus, focus, focus. Tonight is the issue.

First things first. Eurovision is smaller this year, because some countries dropped out. Therefore, with only seventeen countries in each semi-final, only seven are going home from each. Logically then, a deaf child pointing at ten country names with a stick will score at least three right, because only seven can be wrong.

I may try the pointing with a stick idea later. I just need to locate a child first.

Tonight's semi-final is, by almost unanimous agreement in Eurovisionia, the worst of the two. The worst of the two in a bad year. I'm not selling this to you very well, am I? Tonight is not a night I would be encouraging non-Eurovision fans to discover the joys of our favourite contest for the first time. There are very few gems amongst the doggy doo that so many countries have inflicted upon us this year. Frankly, I'd be embarrassed. Save the party for newbies until Saturday, when at least a few of the joyless ones will have gone home. Or at least Thursday, when the UK and Ireland can vote (for the British act representing Cyprus, hint, hint).

So, what do we know already?

Greece is qualifying, because it's Greece. It's also a catchy song with a good set, different lighting, and dancers with tattoos and short hair. Sold.

Serbia is qualifying, because it's a fun party tune and it's Serbia. They failed last year, so they're not always a safe bet, but 2009's song was rubbish and this is good, whether or not you're intrigued by girlie-boy Milan and his Purdey haircut. (He's straight, okay. There are no gays in Serbia. Official.)

Belgium. It's stunningly simple. It's Tom and his (mimed) guitar. He's sexy. Through.

So that's three safe bets.

We can rule out:

Latvia. Unintelligable dross, summed up by Aisha's final three words, "God knows why".
FYR Macedonia. It must surely be a piss-take. Man of a certain age has paid three lap dancers to 'love' him. Rapper comes in and steals his biatches back. Bryan May does a screechy guitar solo. This could be the Macedoine song in the Eurovision pastiche musical, Eurobeat - Almost Eurovision. They don't need to write another one.

Portugal. Dull, lifeless. The song, not her hair. I'm sure she's lovely, but the song ain't. Goodbye.

Which leaves us with eleven more songs, fighting over seven more places.

So, I'll go for: Russia, Finland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Albania, Belarus, Iceland and Poland (my wildcard) to join Greece, Serbia and Belgium in the final. This is in no way based on quality, as some of them are shockers. It's based on history, allegiances and the odd novelty butterfly wing.

My favourite song (on the CD, and as a radio track) is Estonia, but it doesn't work on the Eurovision stage and may well finish last tonight. It's a funny old world. Joining Estonia at the airport tomorrow could therefore be Moldova (a tight squeeze though, and possibly 11th or 12th), Slovakia (the biggest shock for me, as I previously had this down as a qualifier), Malta (for having a daft bird on stage - the feathered one) and the aforementioned Latvia, Portugal and FYR Macedonia.

Whatever the result, enjoy tonight! We'll be back when time allows. I will also be appearing in another place tomorrow, finally justifying my existence (and accreditation) here by doing some proper journalism. More on that when it's done.

Labels: Eurovision 2009, Oslo, predictions, semi-finals

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But first, as I fear he won't get through tonight, here's my Sexiest Man of Eurovision 2009 award. It goes to Zoli Ádok, who will look very good singing and dancing with a vest on tonight for Hungary. Sadly, his song's a bit mediocre, but if people vote for the best hunk in a vest, he could be in luck. Zoli's the one on the left by the way. The one on the right is the lovely Franko from the OnEurope blog team. Franko has been having his picture taken with almost all of this year's contestants (32 out of 42 when I last asked) and the results are all here on his Flickr photostream.

Predictions then.

Qualifying for the final from tonight's second Eurovision semi-final in Moscow.

Dead certs:

Norway - CORRECT
Azerbaijan - CORRECT
Greece - CORRECT

Quite likely:

Moldova - CORRECT
Albania - CORRECT
Netherlands - WRONG
Denmark - CORRECT

Next most likely:
Ukraine - CORRECT
Estonia - CORRECT
Latvia - WRONG

So that's my ten. In Tuesday's semi-final, I struggled to find seven songs, after seeing the performances, that I wanted to progress to the final. In tonight's semi-final, there are fourteen I'd like to see go through, so there is bound to be some disappointment.

I haven't done any big bets tonight, but I've put between one and ten pounds on each of the ten above, just for the sake of it.

Sadly, tonight's hosts in Moscow will be the same as Tuesday's. Reports from Moscow say they're even worse in rehearsals, and the performers are having more trouble singing in tune too.

If the BBC doesn't show the interval act tonight, I'll probably withhold my licence fee, after they deprived us of t.A.T.u. with the Red Army Choir on Tuesday, doing my favourite t.A.T.u. song, Not Gonna Get Us. I'd been looking forward to it, but we got a pointless interview instead.

BBC Three, 20:00 BST.

Labels: Eurovision 2009, predictions

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"Dramatic energetic disco with a heavy bass. Double chorus sections, spoken seductive part by Marina, and of course a key change. Madonna meets Boney M meets Abba at their darkest. Fireworks, elevators, bombs. And Marina on a long bright red couch, from which she will never move one bit, except when she mumbles or plays the synthesizer solo. 100% show, 100% drama."

Doesn't that just sound like the most fantabulous Eurovision entry ever? Whoopee! Sadly, it's the BWO song, 'Lay Your Love On Me' in tomorrow's Melodifestivalen heat in Sweden, not one of ours, as described by the band's loveable lunatic Alexander Bard to the Schlagerboys. It's my favourite song of the year and I haven't even heard it yet.

Fear not though, the UK's songs for Eurovision have been revealed today to a salivating public on the new, super-duper BBC Eurovision website. (If you thought you'd seen it earlier in the week, look again and blink. That was just the warm-up act. Today's version is the proper one.)


The clips on the BBC website are only 30 seconds long, but the full versions are available in all the usual places. In all honesty, the clips are quite misleading and don't give enough of an impression to make any proper judgements.

Luckily for you, I've played the full versions in order to have an opinion to share with you. Unluckily for you, I've played them in heavy rotation and lost all objectivity, forgetting to make any comments on them after just one hearing, which is how they will be judged next Saturday and how one of them will be judged in Beograd (if there's any of the city left by May).

All the songs are good. There's no turkey. (That's Ireland tomorrow.) But none of them are brilliant. This bodes extremely well for the TV show, because I haven't a clue what's going to win now, but there's nothing here which will hoover up points in Serbia.

Andy Abraham and The Revelations both have really strong songs, when taken out of the Eurovision context, but that's where they're best. I just can't envisage either of them on a Eurovision stage. But I can imagine The Revelations representing us, about 25 years ago. As a catchy Motown pastiche, their song is fabulous, and I'm enjoying it over and over again, but it's not what we should be sending to Eurovision. Andy's is funky and catchy, but this type of song would just sink without trace in Beograd, sad to say.

Rob McVeigh's power ballad is good, but it just doesn't achieve its full potential. It promises to go somewhere, then backs down again, then has a sort of fireworks moment, but it's more of a sparkler than a Roman candle. It needs a bit more punch, but that could easily be done before May, if he manages to scrape through next week. Rob should definitely wear his shirt open like this though. That will help.

Michelle Gayle's song, already with the disadvantage of the stupid title Woo (U Make Me), gets off to a very sudden start and reaches the chorus in record time, but the chorus is a load of nonsense. This is the kind of song that only exists in Eurovision preselections, in the same vein as Liz McAtomicKitten's effort last year, which also had a daft title with brackets in, namely (Don't It Make You) Happy! Michelle's song would never be played on the radio in this country and would never be a hit (except it if were to win this, but I don't think it will).

Simona's song is the weakest of the lot and I don't like her voice. It's rather screechy on this. Listen to the recording and it sounds like a high risk song for a live performance. It's not a song I expected from a former Maria contestant, which is brave of her, but if the judges put this through to the televote and not Rob's song, there will be rioting in the studio.

Which leaves LoveShy. Welcome to Serbia, Aimee and Emma. I think this is strong enough to do it, if the live vocals can cut the mustard with the beefy backing track. To be honest, the production on this recorded version sounds a bit muddy and muffled, but I think it may sound clearer on stage. They have also promised to have at least one 'Mr Gorgeous' on stage with them, which may just swing it. I intend to find out in the next few days if any of them will be familiar faces.

So, there we go. My prediction, having heard the songs, is exactly the same final (LoveShy vs. Rob) as I predicted two days ago before hearing more than a snippet of all of them. How odd, or strangely prescient, depending on your point of view.

Now, what will it take to get BWO (right) to represent us next year? (Failure in Sweden is probably the realistic answer to that question. Now I don't know whether or not to support them in the Melodifestivalen. Oh, life is full of dilemmas.)

Labels: BWO, Eurovision-Your Decision, Melodifestivalen, predictions

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And I'm glad someone else believes Latvia can win too. I currently think it's between Ukraine and Latvia on Saturday, depending on Latvia's draw (and assuming they get through tonight), with Serbia coming close again. The bookies now have Ukraine as clear favourite, with some odds as low as 4-1, while Belarus are now up into second and Serbia down to third. Sweden and Switzerland are next in the betting, followed, rather pleasingly, by Bulgaria in sixth. (A week ago, Serbia, Sweden and Switzerland were all joint favourites at 6-1.) Latvia seems like an excellent each way bet to me (for a top 4 placing). I got them at 25-1, but they are available at 40-1 with some bookies - and as low as 16-1 with one other. Please don't waste money on my advice though. Other gambling activities are available.

My Midlands chums Dean and Gerry appear in this with 1:33 left. I'll be quite happy for Sweden to win again if the bloke at 1:42 left is going to be there. Cute!

WARNING: Don't watch this if it annoys you when people refer to Ukraine as 'the Ukraine'.

Labels: ESCtoday, Eurovision 2007, predictions

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Predictions

I'm glad I held back until after reading the reports of today's two, public rehearsals. (All Kinds Of Everything and Nick's OnEurope report, which made me laugh out loud at least three times. He's commenting live, first on the postcards between the songs, then on the performances.)

I have therefore been forced to put Belgium into the ten qualifiers. I think it's boring, and I have told my Belgian friend this several times too often in the past ew weeks, again yesterday at his birthday party and again today at the cinema. However, not only is Belgium's show reported to be 'big in the hall', but my parents, quite independently, have picked the song as a favourite from the CD which I forced them to play. Gadzooks! Are the Krazy Mess Groovers the new Tanel & Dave stroke Olsen Brothers?

Cue the Te Deum! Here are my ten predicted qualifiers. It's been very, very hard to decide and I reserve the right to change my mind tomorrow. (Figures in brackets are the position in the running order.)

UPDATE on Friday 11/05/07:
The countries which qualified are now in bold. I predicted six correctly here and seven after watching the live show, as I put Hungary and Bulgaria in (both correctly) and took Belgium out. Unfortunately, I took FYR Macedonia out as well.

1st (15) Serbia
2nd (28) Latvia
3rd (21) Andorra
4th (26) Turkey
5th (04) Belarus
6th (25) Slovenia
7th (20) Malta
8th (08) Switzerland
9th (24) Belgium
10th (18) FYR Macedonia
------------------
11th (22) Hungary
12th (03) Cyprus
13th (14) Poland
14th (01) Bulgaria
15th (12) Denmark
16th (09) Moldova
17th (10) Netherlands
18th (02) Israel
19th (05) Iceland
20th (17) Portugal
21st (06) Georgia
22nd (19) Norway
23rd (07) Montenegro
24th (16) Czech Republic
25th (11) Albania
26th (13) Croatia
27th (27) Austria
28th (23) Estonia

Labels: Eurovision 2007, predictions, qualifier

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It's back! With just minutes to spare, here we are with Chig's traditional pointless predictions for tonight's Brit Awards 'Live'!

You might think that, having posted all the nominations as they were announced on 16 January, I would have given some serious consideration to who's likely to win and who I'd like to win (and where these two might overlap in the Venn diagram of popular music) but no, I haven't. So, here we go - completely made-up-as-I-go-along predictions. Check back later for the results. Or watch it 'live' (with a thirty second delay for sweary bits) on ITV1 soon.

Key:
*** = my preferred winner
Bold = my predicted winner
Green = the actual winner

Outstanding Contribution Award:
***oasis
I'm pretty confident on this one.

British Single:
To be decided during tonight's show, by televoting. The original eleven nominees have already been voted down to five survivors by readers of The Sun, O2 mobile phone customers and some other people:

Put Your Records On - Corinne Bailey Rae
Fill My Little World - The Feeling
A Moment Like This - Leona Lewis
You Give Me Something - James Morrison
She Moves In Her Own Way - The Kooks
Smile - Lily Allen
***America - Razorlight
I Wish I Was A Punk Rocker (With Flowers In My Hair) - Sandi Thom
Chasing Cars - Snow Patrol
Patience - Take That. Aaaah, I'm choked.
All Time Love - Will Young

British Album:
Alright, Still - Lily Allen
Black Holes and Revelations - Muse
Back To Black - Amy Winehouse
Eyes Open - Snow Patrol
***Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not - Arctic Monkeys. This time, they're dressed as The Village People. The cards!

The winner should really be: Twelve Stops and Home - The Feeling

British Male:
James Morrison !!! Four awards so far this evening, and four shocks! Never in a million years would I have predicted this one.
Jarvis Cocker
***Lemar (One day, matey, one day. Keep plugging away.)
Thom Yorke
Paolo Nutini

British Female:
Amy Winehouse. Ace! Have a drink love! Oh, you have. (Meanwhile, Lily Allen tries to look happy at her table.)
***Lily Allen
Corinne Bailey Rae
Jamelia
Nerina Pallot

British Group:
Snow Patrol
Muse
Kasabian
Razorlight
***Arctic Monkeys. Nice outfits, boys! (In their acceptance film, they're dressed as the four main characters from The Wizard of Oz. Who knows why?)

The winner should really be: The Feeling

International Album:
St. Elsewhere - Gnarls Barkley
Futuresex/Lovesounds - Justin Timberlake
Modern Times - Bob Dylan
***Ta-dah - Scissor Sisters
Sam's Town - The Killers. Crikey! Love 'em, love Brandon, had the album for Christmas, but didn't expect this. Excellent.

British Breakthrough Act:
***The Kooks
Lily Allen
James Morrison
Corinne Bailey Rae
The Fratellis !!! Second award tonight, second shock, but a good one for my second choice in this category.

The winners should really be: The Feeling

British Live Act:
Robbie Williams
Kasabian
George Michael (Because it's Radio 2 voters who will choose.)
Guillemots
***Muse !!! A very pleasant shock. Have most Radio2 listeners ever heard Muse, let alone seen them live?

The winners should really be: Take That

International Male:
Jack Johnson
Damien Rice
Beck
Bob Dylan
***Justin Timberlake. The fifth award given tonight, and the first really predictable winner.

International Female:
Beyoncé
Cat Power
Christina Aguilera
Pink
***Nelly Furtado. If I'd put on just one bet, it would have been this one. No one came near her success last year.

International Group:
The Killers. Again! Hurrah!
***Gnarls Barkley
Scissor Sisters
The Flaming Lips
Red Hot Chili Peppers

International Breakthrough (Voted by MTV viewers):
***Gnarls Barkley
The Raconteurs
Wolfmother
Ray LaMontagne
Orson !!! Tonight's third award, and third surprise!

The scores on the doors:
I'm slipping. Only six out of thirteen winners predicted correctly. Blimey were there some surprises tonight! Lily Allen, Gnarls Barkey, you leave...with nothing!

As far as my preferred winners were concerned, the score was the same: 6/13, with five overlapping (ie. both predictions and favourites winning). I'm counting oasis in both of these categories, being overly generous to myself in the process.

Overall, a good show but not massively exciting. No interesting collaborations at all this year, and trust oasis to make tits of themselves by swearing so much that the sound was dipped during their speeches and their songs. Liam may think he has something important to say, but if the sound gets turned down because of your language, no one's going to get your message are they? The numbskull.

In TV terms, it was a great success; it finished exactly on time!

Labels: Brit Awards, Brits, favourites, predictions, winners

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