World of Chig   

How will the UK vote and who will win tonight?

13:00 CET (12:00 BST). I'm in the Eurovision media centre now for the next few hours, mainly on the hunt for a ticket for tonight, but I will be online or popping back here frequently today.

So, your comments are invited. Who's going to win tonight? I've narrowed it down to twelve out of the 25, as I think this is the most unpredictable contest in years. The fiddling around that the EBU did with the semi-final draw, splitting up countries who are more likely to vote for each other, appears to have worked. With one or two minor quibbles, twenty decent songs have qualified for tonight's final (but what happpened to Bulgaria, which was fantastic?) The dross has mainly gone, but Denmark somehow sneaked in, with a song that I despise. The litmus test of whether FYR Macedonia would qualify with an average song has been passed. They didn't.

Twenty songs which have already gained Europe's approval this week will be competing with five that haven't, and forcing three of them down to the bottom of the scoreboard. (Serbia will be challenging to win and Spain may escape, although it's not as funny or as well-presented as I feared, thank goodness.) Germany, France and the UK will be fighting for last place, as no one except Ireland is likely to give us points, no one except perhaps Belgium will vote for France and only Switzerland may vote for Germany. The staging of the French song is a huge disappointment and it's going to fail miserably. It doesn't sound very good either.

As far as the UK vote is concerned, I have a horrible feeling that Denmark's tedious plodder and Sweden's familiar schlager will be right up there for the 12 and 10, with Bosnia getting the 'we do understand wacky' 8 points. I have heard, from a pretty reliable source, that Denmark topped the televote AND the back-up jury vote in France on Thursday. Be very afraid.

Who do you think will get the UK's points? We're first to give them this year, with former entrant Carrie Grant doing the honours, so the Scandis may top the scoreboard for at least one minute. If we give any points to Portugal or Bosnia-Herzegovina, it will bode very well for both of them. The second vote is from FYR Macedonia, so we'll immediately have an idea of the relative chances of Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina too.

Please feel free to give your opinions below (if anyone's reading on a Saturday afternoon). I'll be back later.

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